Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
