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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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