Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
