War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a coup, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that resistance forces have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".